Expected Championships Won and Titles Over Expected

[dankok8]

There is a lot of discussion on online forums, barber shops etc. talk about how certain athletes exceed expectations while others underachieve but there has never been a way to quantify this. I have recently realized that Preseason Odds on Basketball-Reference can be used to estimate championship odds for teams of certain players. Here is the methodology.

Say player X had a five year career and his teams had Preseason Odds of +800, +250, +300, +1200, and +10000 to win titles in those years. Those betting lines can be converted to implied odds which is probability of winning using an application like this.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculat...converter.html

This is the data that we get for player X:

Year 1: 11.1% —> 0.111 expected titles
Year 2: 28.6% —> 0.286 expected titles
Year 3: 25.0% —> 0.250 expected titles
Year 4: 7.7% —> 0.077 expected titles
Year 5: 1.0% —> 0.010 expected titles

Total: 0.734 expected titles

Dividing the percentages by 100 gives us expected titles won for that particular year. So for instance in year 3, the player has 0.250 expected titles. If we add up all five years we get 0.734 expected titles meaning that this player should reasonably be expected to win 0.734 titles in that 5-year span. This methodology also makes intuitive sense. For example, if a team has 50% chance of winning a title two years in a row then they are expected to win one championship. If the same team has a 50% chance of winning for four years then they are expected to win two championships.

Preseason title odds are available for the NBA since the 1984-85 season. Comparing expected titles with the number of championships the player actually won we can get an idea if said player’s teams overachieved or underachieved. Here are some of the biggest legends ranked in order of titles above expected. A high positive score is obviously the best while a negative score is bad and indicates underachieving.

Titles Above Expected of Some Legends: 1984-85 to 2020-21



See the attached link to download the PDF for year-by-year numbers of each player.

https://file.io/lPxc8SCh7Zpa

[Akeem34TheDream]

Larry Bird 1 title??

[dankok8]

Larry Bird 1 title??

Since 1984-85 only...

[Akeem34TheDream]

Since 1984-85 only...

Oh my bad

[3ba11]

There is a lot of discussion on online forums, barber shops etc. talk about how certain athletes exceed expectations while others underachieve but there has never been a way to quantify this. I have recently realized that Preseason Odds on Basketball-Reference can be used to estimate championship odds for teams of certain players. Here is the methodology.

Say player X had a five year career and his teams had Preseason Odds of +800, +250, +300, +1200, and +10000 to win titles in those years. Those betting lines can be converted to implied odds which is probability of winning using an application like this.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculat...converter.html

This is the data that we get for player X:

Year 1: 11.1% —> 0.111 expected titles
Year 2: 28.6% —> 0.286 expected titles
Year 3: 25.0% —> 0.250 expected titles
Year 4: 7.7% —> 0.077 expected titles
Year 5: 1.0% —> 0.010 expected titles

Total: 0.734 expected titles

Dividing the percentages by 100 gives us expected titles won for that particular year. So for instance in year 3, the player has 0.250 expected titles. If we add up all five years we get 0.734 expected titles meaning that this player should reasonably be expected to win 0.734 titles in that 5-year span. This methodology also makes intuitive sense. For example, if a team has 50% chance of winning a title two years in a row then they are expected to win one championship. If the same team has a 50% chance of winning for four years then they are expected to win two championships.

Preseason title odds are available for the NBA since the 1984-85 season. Comparing expected titles with the number of championships the player actually won we can get an idea if said player’s teams overachieved or underachieved. Here are some of the biggest legends ranked in order of titles above expected. A high positive score is obviously the best while a negative score is bad and indicates underachieving.

Titles Above Expected of Some Legends: 1984-85 to 2020-21



See the attached link to download the PDF for year-by-year numbers of each player.

https://file.io/lPxc8SCh7Zpa

^^^^ that's an excellent way to do it - very logical and rational - more hardcore proof


Here's 538's, which is inferior by including 2nd and 3rd options on their list and havingn a more convoluted way of doing it that includes gamescore:

[Airupthere]

No matter how you slice and dice it, and considering MJ played before any advanced stats or any new method was used, MJ just comes out on top of Lebron and in some cases, like this one, it's not even close.

[TheCorporation]

Preseason odds = Retarded

Why would you use more incomplete information by looking at preseason odds versus looking at title odds at the start of the Finals

[coastalmarker99]

There are a lot of myths about Wilt, both good and bad.

One persistent myth is: "Wilt and his teams played great in the regular season but then choked and underperformed in the playoffs."

This comment will examine this myth.


This comment

Takes Wilt's teams' regular season SRS.

Compares this SRS to the regular season SRS of each PO opponent.

Uses SRS difference between teams and Pythagorean theory to calculate Wilt's teams' EXPECTED WINS in each playoff series.

Compares EXPECTED WINS vs. ACTUAL WINS.


For example, Wilt's first PO series was in 1960 vs Syracuse). Warriors & Syracuse were evenly matched in SRS (2.77 each).

With an SRS difference of 0.00, the Warriors were expected to win 1.5 games in a 3-game series. In fact, the Warriors won 3-0.

Thus, 1.5 wins ABOVE expected wins.



In 160 PO games, Wilt's teams won 6.7 MORE games than expected.

Overall, Wilt's teams did NOT underperform!

In Wilt's 29 PO series:

12x Wilt's teams were >0.5 wins BETTER than expected.

11x at expected wins (between -0.5 and +0.5).

6x had FEWER (< -0.5) wins than expected


Therefore in 23 of 29 series, Wilt's teams won more or as many games as expected based on RS SRS.

That's 79%!

Only 21% of the time did Wilt's teams "underperform."

(Note: This is a team stat. There were series that Wilt's teams/TEAMMATES underperformed while Wilt played well.)



Wilt's teams had fewer than expected wins in 6 series:

1961 vs. Syracuse: 3-game series:
Expected wins: 1.4; actually won 0 (-1.4)

1964 vs. Celtics: 5 gms
Exp: 2.1; won 1 (-1.1)

1966 vs. Celtics: 5 gms
Exp. 2.5; won 1 (-1.5)

1968 vs. Celtics: 7 gms
Exp 4.4, won 3 (-1.4)




1973 vs. Bulls: 7 games
Exp. 4.5 wins; actually won 4.
(At -0.5 wins below expectation, this is a close call. You could say that the Lakers matched expectation. But they probably should have won in 6.)

1973 vs. Knicks: 5 gms
Exp. 2.8; won 1 (-1.8)


Rest of Wilt's PO series vs. Russell's Celtics:

1960: 6 gms
Exp: 2.1; won 3 (-0.1: as expected)

1962: 7 gms
Exp: 2.3; won 3 (+0.7: OVERPERFORMED)

1965: 7 gms
Exp: 1.9; won 3 (+1.1: OVER)

1967: 5 gms
Exp: 2.7; won 4 (+2.3: OVER)

1969: 7 gms
Exp: 3.2; won 3 (-0.2: as expected)



In 8 series vs Russell's Celtics:

Wilt's teams:

3x overperformed

2x won as many games as expected

3x underperformed

In 49 PO games vs. Celtics, Wilt's teams won -1.3 games fewer than expected.



Part of the myth is that "Wilt was on a superteam with Baylor and West on the Lakers. So Wilt should have won the championship all 5 years."

First, Baylor played in only 2 POs with Wilt. For the other 3 PO, he was injured.
West also was injured 1 PO.
And Wilt injured in 1 RS.


Second, if we actually look at expected wins, we find that Lakers consistently overperformed or performed as expected for 4 straight PO runs.

In 11 PO series, 1969-72:

7x overperformed by +0.5 or more wins

4x performed as expected (between -0.5 and +0.5)

zero times underperformed


Only in 1973 did Wilt's Lakers ever underperform in a PO series:

Vs. Bulls: 7 games
Exp. 4.5 wins; won 4 (-0.5, on the borderline between underperformed and performed as expected).

Vs. Warriors: 5 gms
Exp: 2.6; won 4 (+1.4: over)

Vs. Knicks: 5 gms
Exp: 2.8; won 1 (-1.8)


Overall, Wilt's teams did NOT underperform in POs.

In 160 PO games, Wilt's teams won 6.7 MORE games than expected.

29 PO series:

12x Wilt's teams were >0.5 wins MORE than expected.

11x at expected wins (between -0.5 and +0.5).

6x (21%) had FEWER (< -0.5) wins than expected


The 62, '65, 69 and '70 playoffs are even more impressive for Wilt and his teams considering:


'62: Tom Gola is injured vs Celtics

'65: Larry Costello, arguably their 2nd best player that year, was injured during the playoffs.

69 Baylor was basically worthless in the playoffs along with Vbk.


'70: Happy Hairston was injured the entire playoffs and struggled heavily and Wilt miraculously came back from a ruptured knee but wasn't quite the same player anymore.


With Larry Costello basically out of the series in 1965 the talent, the disparity between the two teams was overwhelming and it's crazy to think Wilt even got them that far in the first place.

Fully healthy I think they almost certainly win that series and take home the ring that year against a Baylor less Lakers team.

[dankok8]

^ I wish we had betting odds data prior to 1984-85 so I could extend this analysis further back to include Russell, Wilt, Kareem etc.

[Baller789]

Preseason odds = Retarded

Why would you use more incomplete information by looking at preseason odds versus looking at title odds at the start of the Finals

Of course you don't like it.
It exposes Lebron teams underachievements.

[ArbitraryWater]

Makes no sense.

LeBron with more expected titles?

Are you telling me if LeBron was in Jordan's situation, he'd have won less?

And Jordan more in LeBron's situation?

Pre-season odds are far far far away from reason.

[Johnny32]

preseason odds lol.

[TheGoatest]

Preseason odds = Retarded

Comedy gold.

[SouBeachTalents]

Why are Kobe & Wade getting full credit when they were sidekicks for most of their titles? Ditto Robinson who was a legit role player for one of his.

[HunterSThompson]

nobody expected magic johnson to win just 2 titles. wtf