North Korea is believed to possess between 40 and 50 warheads, along with the means to deliver them across the region and potentially to the US mainland.
“An attack on North Korea could provoke the risk of full-scale nuclear war,” Lim of Kyungnam University warned.
He added that under the US-South Korea alliance treaty, US military action against North Korea would also require prior consultation with the South Korean government, a step that carries political and legal implications.
There are also external powers to consider. Unlike Iran, North Korea has a formal mutual defense treaty with Russia, “which allows Russia to automatically intervene in the event of an attack,” Lim underscored.
This matrix of deterrents – nuclear capability, US regional alliances, and Russian backing – likely insulates Pyongyang from the kind of unilateral military action Washington exercised in Iran.
In the end, said Lim, the strike on Iran might not serve as a deterrent to proliferation but as a justification.
“This attack will deepen North Korea’s distrust of the US,” he said, “and is expected to act as a catalyst for a shift in North Korea’s foreign policy, particularly by strengthening and deepening military cooperation with Russia.”