Apparently "the data" suggests Magic are simply better with Paolo off the court.

[FultzNationRISE]

Not just in the three weeks this season, but supposedly it's a career long trend.

Im not gonna give my personal take on this since nobody's paying me, but if anyone wishes to discuss, feel free.

I will however pose this simple question:

Paolo for Zion incoming!?

[Xiao Yao You]

Like mitchell with the jazz

[Im Still Ballin]

Paolo for Lauri. Orlando gets way better.

[Xiao Yao You]

Paolo for Lauri. Orlando gets way better.

Jazz might consider it. Depends on what else they give up for lauri

[FultzNationRISE]

Paolo for Lauri. Orlando gets way better.

Would honestly rather see both guys bought out and allowed to join Lebron on the cheap.

It's not because Lebron needs any help - he absolutely doesnt - I just think it would be a cool blend of styles. Just purely an entertainment thing.

Lebron could still win either way. The supposed 'help' is not what this is about.

[ImKobe]

I don't think it's just because of his individual output. Franz basically puts up identical numbers and has similar flaws to his game yet his +/- is so much better but it's not like he's a better player. Magic can't consistenly win having two dudes who require the ball and who can't hit outside shots consistently, even if their defense is top 5. Paolo is good but not good enough to be the best player on a contending team if his shot doesn't improve.

[HylianNightmare]

You just have to have 2 eyeballs to see it when they play. Franz is a bettee playmaker and while paulo is a better package as a scorer its not very efficient

[FultzNationRISE]

I don't think it's just because of his individual output. Franz basically puts up identical numbers and has similar flaws to his game yet his +/- is so much better but it's not like he's a better player. Magic can't consistenly win having two dudes who require the ball and who can't hit outside shots consistently, even if their defense is top 5. Paolo is good but not good enough to be the best player on a contending team if his shot doesn't improve.

Well therein lies the rub. Optically they do seem like very similar players, but apparently with Franz and no Paolo theyre like +7, with Paolo and no Franz it swings to nearly -7.

And it's a years-long trend so it's kinda hard to argue Wagner isnt the better player right now. The question is how likely it is the Magic can get to a place where having them both on the court is ideal. Right now all the evidence shows it is not.

[FultzNationRISE]

Anyway Franz's actual light skin twin is over in Atlanta. Jalen Johnson.

[Im Still Ballin]

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos...631094,1630532

[Im Still Ballin]

It gets even worse if you adjust the leverage to "medium." Any higher than that and the sample of minutes played is too low.

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos...everage=Medium

Leverage on PBP Stats refers to the analysis of basketball play-by-play data to determine how crucial a possession is to the outcome of the game. Leverage is calculated based on a model that considers factors like the score margin, time remaining, and win probability to assign a value to each possession. This helps analyze a player's or team's performance in different game situations, differentiating between high-leverage (close and late) situations and low-leverage ("garbage time") situations.

What PBP stats leverage is

A measure of game situation: Leverage quantifies the importance of a possession, with higher values indicating a greater impact on the game's outcome.

Based on a win probability model: It uses a model that takes into account the current score, time left, and the pre-game win probability for each team to determine the leverage of a possession.

Used to identify meaningful performance: It allows for the analysis of how players perform in meaningful parts of the game versus "garbage time".

How it's calculated

The model uses a possession's specific context (score, time remaining) to calculate a "leverage value".

This is done by first determining the possible outcomes of a possession (e.g., scoring \(0,1,2,\) or \(3\) points) and their respective win probabilities.

A weighted average is then calculated based on the frequency of these outcomes and their change in win probability, resulting in a single leverage value for that possession.

Examples of its use

Player performance: It can be used to see if a player is scoring primarily in low-leverage situations or if they are performing well when it matters most, as shown in the analysis of LeBron James' points in high-leverage situations compared to other prolific scorers.

Team analysis: It can provide a summary of team performance by classifying possessions into categories like "high," "medium," and "low" leverage to understand how a team performs overall in different scenarios.

Game analysis: It can be used to analyze trends in the NBA, such as the percentage of close games or comeback victories in a given season.