Haliburton, Tatum, Lillard torn Achilles: freak accidents or noteworthy trend?

[tpols]

Modern style of play = more lateral movements & changes of direction, resulting in more acute joint angles of the ankle, knee, and hip. Less about pace and more about how players are moving around the court to cover the three-point line and dribble penetration.

yea thats a good explanation. The frantic, manic 3pt line chasing and spaced out action in general requires more of what you said. More flexibility is needed instead of muscular rigidity.

[Im Still Ballin]

Teams cover way more miles than even 10 years ago, let alone 20-40+.

Thanks to NBA tracking data, we now know how many miles an NBA team covers in a given season dating back to the 2013-14 season. Fundamentally, this is a very good measure of league-wide physical load. Over the past ten seasons, teams have gone from covering, on average, 1,384.1 miles per 82 games to 1,492.3, and as of a few days ago, the league average was on pace to hit 1,528 [2025]. However, this leaves us with a predicament. Yes, players are covering more ground, but load management has been around longer than the tracking data. Thankfully, I found two bellwether statistics that will allow us to take a glimpse into the past and how much has changed over the past 45 years.

On offense, the league-wide pace had a linear correlation to offensive miles covered of 0.935, and on defense, the league-wide 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) came in at 0.903. This makes sense, pace measures how many possessions in a game, or how many times a team goes up and down the court, and 3PAr is an excellent proxy for how much ground a defense has to cover.

With that discovery, I simply added pace and 3PAr multiplied by 100 to create “Pace + 3PAr”. And much to my delight, the metric had a linear correlation of 0.935 to the average distance covered. When you find a linear correlation this strong, you know you’re onto something. Using a linear forecast model, I calculated how many miles teams covered on average dating back to 1980 based solely on league average pace and 3PAr. While these figures are not exact, there is a high likelihood that the overall trend is accurate, and the results are staggering.



According to the linear forecast, it’s estimated that teams on average covered 1,282.5 miles in the 1979-80 season and that figure would hold steady for the next 15 seasons. In fact, the slight blip in the mid-90s coincides with the relative explosion in 3-pointers due to moving the 3-point line in. If we take those figures with a grain of salt, it isn’t until the mid-2000s that we’re consistently above 1,300 miles, and following the 2012-13 season, we see a massive explosion in distance traveled as pace and 3PAr spike. It took 34 years, from 1979-80 to 2013-14, for the league average distance traveled to grow 100 miles, but it only took five seasons to grow its next 100 miles. The load on players is coming fast and furious, and star players are bearing the brunt.

[Im Still Ballin]

yea thats a good explanation. The frantic, manic 3pt line chasing and spaced out action in general requires more of what you said. More flexibility is needed instead of muscular rigidity.

Eh, flexibility and muscle & strength are not at odds with each other. See gymnastics & Olympic weightlifters. I'd argue that players need to start lifting more and embracing the weight room to a greater extent. Tim Grover more or less said the same thing.

Like with anything, if implemented incorrectly, yes: the weightroom can slow you down, stiffen you up, and lead to injury. Subpar periodization, exercise selection, and poor form represent a failure to execute strength and conditioning in ideal fashion. Only will muscle mass potentially limit joint flexibility/range of motion when pro bodybuilder-level LBM (lean body mass) is attained. Which no basketball player will ever have to worry about.

Proper implementation entails intelligent periodization, the right exercise selection to promote structural balance and ideal strength ratios, and the use of a full range of motion and mobility work to maintain flexibility.

[GOBB]

How can you say that? Less games means less strain.

As a fan I don't remember the last time injuries were this frequent, so something has changed. Chalk it up to whatever you want. The training, the conditioning, the frantic speed at which the game is played, the softness of the players...

... fact is the season is bloated as it is. It's long and boring and half the league makes it to the playoffs anyway. Might as well trim the games down and make each game count more. Plus it may help the injury problem. It's a win win.

Damien Lillard played 58gms this season. Not 82. Less games means less strain. I mean thats you just told me. Theres no sweet spot for games played to prevent this injury. You can make the season 40gms with the woe is me cries and if a player is training too much? That could be a cause. Or the sneaker. Or *insert many reasons why*. YOU don’t want long seasons. It’s not because you care about players health. Cut it out. Paul George was injured. He was healthy and in great conditioning. Boom injured early in the season. Too many games? He rushed back and should’ve rehabbed more. He wasn’t the same. Stops playing. Too many games?

It’s multilayered why guys are getting injured. Especially Achilles injuries. You lessen the games. A player blows his Achilles and what’s your next line?


Also non athletic, sedentary fans need to shut up calling players soft. You never done anything physically demanding in your life. It’s weird to see so many fans label a guy blowing his Achilles as being soft.


anyway as far as prevention who knows. Embiid has been injured for I don’t know how long. Long seasons isn’t the reason for it. It’s unfortunate but apart of sports. I get wanting to minimize them but focusing solely on less games ain’t solving the injury issue at all. They will still occur

[beasted]

They players wouldn't need to run as much if they let players actually defend. Instead, all of the rule changes over the last 30 years have been offensive favored.

From the looseness on carry, travels, gather, and moving screens... to the take fouls and clear path fouls, to the tightening of flagrant fouls definitions. The NBA has transparently promoted that they wanted to speed the game up.

[Im Still Ballin]

Tim Grover explains why there are more Injuries happening in today's game.

https://streamable.com/4gf6b9

[FKAri]

Seems so, this what I found on the topic:

Tennis has much more changes of direction but you're not following it up by getting as high up into air as you can, while avoiding stepping on someone or having your own foot get stepped on.

[GOBB]

Tim Grover explains why there are more Injuries happening in today's game.

https://streamable.com/4gf6b9

Good video I dig it

[Real Men Wear Green]

Tim Grover explains why there are more Injuries happening in today's game.

https://streamable.com/4gf6b9

He may be right overall but Tatum does a lot of weight training.

[coin24]

Lots of change of direction, stop/start motion and changing of pace..

Years previous you had more post play, backing guys down etc. game was slower

[Phoenix]

I haven't seen the Tim Grover vid yet,but the reality is today's players have to cover more ground due to how spaced out the game is now. Having to defend 40-50 three pointers a game is going to lead to more blown achilles. The only answer I see to this is lowering the amount of games( when's the last time a star player hit 80 games?), because obviously the cat is out of the bag in terms of the modern 3point heavy strategies.

[GOBB]

I haven't seen the Tim Grover vid yet,but the reality is today's players have to cover more ground due to how spaced out the game is now. Having to defend 40-50 three pointers a game is going to lead to more blown achilles. The only answer I see to this is lowering the amount of games( when's the last time a star player hit 80 games?), because obviously the cat is out of the bag in terms of the modern 3point heavy strategies.

How does lowering the game change how the game is played tho? Your argument is how players have to cover more ground due to spacing. How you have to defend 40-50 3’s. You’re going to do that if it’s 30 games 40 games or 50 games in a season. I’m not following the Logic of less games when that doesn’t change the style of play. Which some are hinting may be the cause.

Also Haliburton blew his Achilles not defending a 3. He went to drive. Tatum went to get a loose/tipped pass. Lillard did the same. Each player blew their Achilles with explosive movement. What we do know of a calf injury you’re chances of messing up that Achilles is high. What events led to Tatum and Lillard injuries is the unknown. It’s it repeated explosive moves over and over? I don’t know. What I do see is a bunch of theories some of which make sense to why. But lowering the games? Nah. Now if you want to give me host of reasons before lowering games that needs to be done? Sure I’ll be on board. Just lowering games solves nothing. Sorry

[ArbitraryWater]

How does lowering the game change how the game is played tho? Your argument is how players have to cover more ground due to spacing. How you have to defend 40-50 3’s. You’re going to do that if it’s 30 games 40 games or 50 games in a season. I’m not following the Logic of less games when that doesn’t change the style of play. Which some are hinting may be the cause.

Also Haliburton blew his Achilles not defending a 3. He went to drive. Tatum went to get a loose/tipped pass. Lillard did the same. Each player blew their Achilles with explosive movement. What we do know of a calf injury you’re chances of messing up that Achilles is high. What events led to Tatum and Lillard injuries is the unknown. It’s it repeated explosive moves over and over? I don’t know. What I do see is a bunch of theories some of which make sense to why. But lowering the games? Nah. Now if you want to give me host of reasons before lowering games that needs to be done? Sure I’ll be on board. Just lowering games solves nothing. Sorry

Bruh sometimes you really take it to another level.


less games means you do less of all that.

You really dont get degrees, right? You just dont get.

less games means less wear.

It always needs to be explained in extremes to you.

If you shorten the regular season to 40 games, would it make an impact on the likelihood of getting injured?

[Phoenix]

How does lowering the game change how the game is played tho? Your argument is how players have to cover more ground due to spacing. How you have to defend 40-50 3’s. You’re going to do that if it’s 30 games 40 games or 50 games in a season. I’m not following the Logic of less games when that doesn’t change the style of play. Which some are hinting may be the cause.

Also Haliburton blew his Achilles not defending a 3. He went to drive. Tatum went to get a loose/tipped pass. Lillard did the same. Each player blew their Achilles with explosive movement. What we do know of a calf injury you’re chances of messing up that Achilles is high. What events led to Tatum and Lillard injuries is the unknown. It’s it repeated explosive moves over and over? I don’t know. What I do see is a bunch of theories some of which make sense to why. But lowering the games? Nah. Now if you want to give me host of reasons before lowering games that needs to be done? Sure I’ll be on board. Just lowering games solves nothing. Sorry

I wasn't arguing that lowering the games changes the style of play. Like, there's no reason for you to think that's the connection I was making. I expressly stated that the cat is out of the bag on that. The only thing they possibly can do is shorten the season, because shortening the season obviously means less wear and tear. Like, that concept on it own merits doesn't need to be explained. I think the thing is for you.... is the Achilles issue specifically tied to the increase in player court coverage? That's the speculative part, but outside of doing something to decrease general wear and tear and HOPE that correlates to a lower possibility of Achilles injuries, what is the solution? A change in how shoes are made? Special exercises to reduce chance of an Achilles pop? The only thing we know is that Achilles injuries are on the rise from 30, even 20 years ago. The only thing we can point to as an obvious shift is style of play and what the modern players are doing. There's only but so many ways you can tackle the issue.

You expressed the reasons why those players blew their Achilles but you're asking if it's repeated explosive moves. Haliburton blew his on a drive, but who's to say that wasn't the net result of general wear and tear due to the nature of the modern game? Same for Lillard. And of course, everyone's body is different. Nobody in here knows the answer to this. We only see an uptick in this kind of injury. You're not going to change the style of play, so what is the only thing they possibly can change? The number of games. Why? Because 65 games is 17 games less of wear and tear than 82. Will that make a difference? We won't know, obviously less games is less general wear and tear. 4-2=2.

[GOBB]

I wasn't arguing that lowering the games changes the style of play. Like, there's no reason for you to think that's the connection I was making. I expressly stated that the cat is out of the bag on that. The only thing they possibly can do is shorten the season, because shortening the season obviously means less wear and tear. Like, that concept on it own merits doesn't need to be explained. I think the thing for you is... is the Achilles issue specifically tied to the increase in player court coverage? That's the speculative part, but outside of doing something to decrease general wear and tear and HOPE that correlates to a lower possibility of Achilles injuries, what is the solution? A change in how shoes are made? Special exercises to reduce chance of an Achilles pop? The only thing we know is that Achilles injuries are on the rise from 30, even 20 years ago. The only thing we can point to as an obvious shift in style of play and what the modern players are doing. There's only but so many ways you can tackle the issue.

You expressed the reasons why those players blew their Achilles but you're asking if it's repeated explosive moves. Haliburton blew his on a drive, but who's to say that wasn't the net result of general wear and tear due to the nature of the modern game? Same for Lillard. And of course, everyone's body is different. Nobody in here knows the answer to this. We only see an uptick in this kind of injury. You're not going to change the style of play, so what is the only thing they possibly can change? The number of games. Why? Because 65 games is 17 games less of wear and tear than 82. Will that make a difference? We won't know, obviously less games is less general wear and tear. 4-2=2.

Haliburton blew his Achilles because he had a calf injury in the finals. That was the net result. From non pro athletes who played sports. From pro athletes (podcasts). They all suggested he shouldn’t have played on the calf. They know why but they also said the risk of that happening was high. And how calf injuries are nothing to play with. Dame didn’t play 82gms. I want to say he got injured game 58? So the weak spot is what 30 games of wear and tear you’re less likely and over 50 you enter the danger zone? No one knows the answer to that. They just say shorten the season, less wear and tear. No one knows if these explosive moves are a result of wear and tear or other issues. Or a combination of all of the above. Seems multilayered. Also seems one case isn’t the same as another.

I dont know why these 3 blew their Achilles. I’ve read and listened to informed folks in the sports world or who have torn their Achilles before. Nothing about the long season being a result of these injuries seem to be the theme.

I don’t have a solution. I don’t concretely know why these 3 blew their Achilles. I just don’t think making the season 35 games would reduce these injuries. If haliburton doesn’t injure his calf he doesn’t blow his Achilles. But then we can say wear and tear to why he injured his calf huh?