Stock market panic around the world due to fears about the US entering a recession

[bladefd]

https://www.business-standard.com/wo...0801912_1.html

That's why the response will be to lower the interest rates, and it will happen. I look forward to JPMorgan's updated odds once the interest rate cut comes.

[ZenMaster]

That's why the response will be to lower the interest rates, and it will happen. I look forward to JPMorgan's updated odds once the interest rate cut comes.

I don't care too much about specific designations, but more so the big picture. If there's an ongoing risk of recession, it means a lot of people are struggling.

[Bill Gates]

I don't care too much about specific designations, but more so the big picture. If there's an ongoing risk of recession, it means a lot of people are struggling.

IIRC it wasn't long ago that JP Morgan and others pinned their odds of recession at 100%.

We are at no threat of recession. What is happening that society doesn't like is the natural evolution of capitalism. It always seeks to figure out what is cheapest and most efficient. In times of high inflation, there are no businesses that are going to rush to get their employees pay up to speed. It can take a decade before wages eventually catch up.

And everyone on the right who is supposedly struggling and want change? What they aren't seeing is that they are actually demanding socialism. Trickle down doesn't work, if it did we would all be rich right now because the wealthy have never been more top-heavy than they are currently.

[Lakers Legend#32]

I prefer president's who did not cheer for a market crash.

[ZenMaster]

IIRC it wasn't long ago that JP Morgan and others pinned their odds of recession at 100%.

We are at no threat of recession. What is happening that society doesn't like is the natural evolution of capitalism. It always seeks to figure out what is cheapest and most efficient. In times of high inflation, there are no businesses that are going to rush to get their employees pay up to speed. It can take a decade before wages eventually catch up.

And everyone on the right who is supposedly struggling and want change? What they aren't seeing is that they are actually demanding socialism. Trickle down doesn't work, if it did we would all be rich right now because the wealthy have never been more top-heavy than they are currently.

Back when they pinned the odds of recession at 100% was when the GDP was negative for two consecutive quarters in 2022, which as long as you and I have been able to read is what governments and media has used as the definition when they say recession.



And no, people on the right aren't asking for socialism, that's a talking point installed on the left for the people there to feel smart, "but they're actually asking for what we want to give them".
The real solution is to bring back production jobs and force companies to pay out US citizens wages instead of Mexican, Chinese, Vietnamese or whatever to the extent possible.
You have an American registered company and brand and want to sell to Americans, you should be producing your goods in the US and not Mexico or anywhere else - if you do produce in Mexico, the US govt taxes you to an extent where it doesn't make sense to keep production there.

I know the counter argument is to say that then everything will just get more expensive because US workers needs higher wages than e.g Mexican, but it's not how it plays out in the realuty because of domestic competition on more equal terms. I'll give you an example:

Company A sells AC units, they were making around 1 billion in profit per year after all wages and expenses when producing their units in Mexico and shipping them over the border. Their profit margin was 30% before having to move production back and they want to keep the same profits after having been pushed to move their production to the US, so they add to the price.
People then start complaining that those AC units are too expensive, so someone smart takes a look and finds out that if he makes company B, another AC company and aims for a 10% profit margin after having paid all workers and expenses instead of 30%, he can out compete company A on price and take their customers. The new founder would have to be contempt with his company earning $330 million instead of 1 billion after all expenses if it was eventually to grow to the size of company A, but there are lots of people who want that kind of business.
The market wouldn't be taken over by Chinese companies producing ACs either, because the government in question would obviously slap a tariff on their producs so they end up at same price level as domestic production.

More quality jobs for US workers means more money for the population, and it's a much better way than letting mega corporations profit through external production before having to give some of that money to US government as taxes, who then can pass it on to the popoulation through various support programs and make people dependent on government in the day to day. The more money which has to flow to government, the higher the chance of corruption, bureaucrats and politicians taking a cut in deceptive ways.

To me, the main reason to vote for Trump was always that he was trying to bring jobs back and get people off food stamps.

[SATAN]

And no, people on the right aren't asking for socialism, that's a talking point installed on the left for the people there to feel smart, "but they're actually asking for what we want to give them".
The real solution is to bring back production jobs and force companies to pay out US citizens wages instead of Mexican, Chinese, Vietnamese or whatever to the extent possible.

[ZenMaster]

When it comes to American companies that produce mainly for that market, there's nothing wrong with US gov protecting Americans workers instead of ones in Tijuana or Guanzhou. It's also better for the environment if production of products happen closer to where they're consumed.

[Bill Gates]

Back when they pinned the odds of recession at 100% was when the GDP was negative for two consecutive quarters in 2022, which as long as you and I have been able to read is what governments and media has used as the definition when they say recession.



And no, people on the right aren't asking for socialism, that's a talking point installed on the left for the people there to feel smart, "but they're actually asking for what we want to give them".
The real solution is to bring back production jobs and force companies to pay out US citizens wages instead of Mexican, Chinese, Vietnamese or whatever to the extent possible.
You have an American registered company and brand and want to sell to Americans, you should be producing your goods in the US and not Mexico or anywhere else - if you do produce in Mexico, the US govt taxes you to an extent where it doesn't make sense to keep production there.

I know the counter argument is to say that then everything will just get more expensive because US workers needs higher wages than e.g Mexican, but it's not how it plays out in the realuty because of domestic competition on more equal terms. I'll give you an example:

Company A sells AC units, they were making around 1 billion in profit per year after all wages and expenses when producing their units in Mexico and shipping them over the border. Their profit margin was 30% before having to move production back and they want to keep the same profits after having been pushed to move their production to the US, so they add to the price.
People then start complaining that those AC units are too expensive, so someone smart takes a look and finds out that if he makes company B, another AC company and aims for a 10% profit margin after having paid all workers and expenses instead of 30%, he can out compete company A on price and take their customers. The new founder would have to be contempt with his company earning $330 million instead of 1 billion after all expenses if it was eventually to grow to the size of company A, but there are lots of people who want that kind of business.
The market wouldn't be taken over by Chinese companies producing ACs either, because the government in question would obviously slap a tariff on their producs so they end up at same price level as domestic production.

More quality jobs for US workers means more money for the population, and it's a much better way than letting mega corporations profit through external production before having to give some of that money to US government as taxes, who then can pass it on to the popoulation through various support programs and make people dependent on government in the day to day. The more money which has to flow to government, the higher the chance of corruption, bureaucrats and politicians taking a cut in deceptive ways.

To me, the main reason to vote for Trump was always that he was trying to bring jobs back and get people off food stamps.

I don't have any disagreement with this take. But I will say that if you are forcing US companies to pay more for US production rather than getting cheap labor outside of the US? That is more or less a form of socialism. It is no different than allowing those companies to get their cheap labor in China, but then taxing them for that and using that money to create US jobs.

[ZenMaster]

I don't have any disagreement with this take. But I will say that if you are forcing US companies to pay more for US production rather than getting cheap labor outside of the US? That is more or less a form of socialism. It is no different than allowing those companies to get their cheap labor in China, but then taxing them for that and using that money to create US jobs.

Money flowing directly from companies to people is very different than money flowing from companies to government, and then to people. The latter is the building block for communism and a world where the person is dependent on the state. It's also a building block for government corruption as officials decide how much of your money they want to keep for the state, which they can thenen use for state services at companies of their family, friends etc.

[rmt]

Tip(s) of the day - Go Roth (and take chance government will keep its word on tax free on the back end). Traditional IRA no longer can be stretch IRA for most beneficiaries (except spouse). Convert traditional IRAs to Roth between age 59 1/2 to 63 (be careful of Medicare IRMMA - 2 year look back). Recommendation: The Retirement Savings Time Bomb Ticks Louder by Ed Slott.

Don't know why anyone ever said Medicare is free - what a joke - based on income and a stick to single people.

Go Medicare High Deductible plan G - especially in Florida and NY.

All this retirement/Medicare stuff is complicated.

[Bill Gates]

Money flowing directly from companies to people is very different than money flowing from companies to government, and then to people. The latter is the building block for communism and a world where the person is dependent on the state. It's also a building block for government corruption as officials decide how much of your money they want to keep for the state, which they can thenen use for state services at companies of their family, friends etc.

The gist of socialism is forcing money from companies and the wealthy and spreading it around to those who are more in need than them. Which is more or less what forcing companies to spend more on their own citizens is. Again, I'm all for it. But you should be realistic about what it is. Taxing companies and using that money to create jobs is literally the same thing.

[ILLsmak]

I don't have any disagreement with this take. But I will say that if you are forcing US companies to pay more for US production rather than getting cheap labor outside of the US? That is more or less a form of socialism. It is no different than allowing those companies to get their cheap labor in China, but then taxing them for that and using that money to create US jobs.

I dunno, but this is how I feel:

first of all, exploiting cheap labor is bad. It's immoral. I know people don't wanna talk about such things, but it's important, imo, esp if you are talking about people being rich and becoming better people.

Second of all, I feel like IF we are able to make people use US labor, when we have rules in place to avoid people being overworked and working for sweat wages, then we increase the value of everything we have in a fundamental sense. Arguably, we even make life better for the poor laborers who will probably see an increase in their wages eventually, too.

I don't see that as socialism because it's outside of our laws. If capitalism was just lawless then it should have labor camps. Take all poor people and force them to work for free. We do have laws, however, and capitalism works with those laws. Those laws are designed to protect workers, and while they do not redistribute wealth in that socialist sense, they do 'artificially' raise the cost of labor. However, it's necessary to give people a level of protection against 'slavery.'

Ideal world is where people can make money making things for us and can also afford products themselves. If our country only works with cheap labor, then shit is ****ed up.

In no world should we be championing exploitation.

-Smak

[gbaLL]

marley = cool

[ZenMaster]

The gist of socialism is forcing money from companies and the wealthy and spreading it around to those who are more in need than them. Which is more or less what forcing companies to spend more on their own citizens is. Again, I'm all for it. But you should be realistic about what it is. Taxing companies and using that money to create jobs is literally the same thing.

Literally the same thing huh? Telling companies that if they act as an international company pretending to be American then they'll have to pay import taxes on their products is different at it's core than taxing those companies for profits built on the back of cheap labor in Asia or South America.

You want American companies to to exploit cheap labor in other countries so they can send the profit into the US where a job is then created for the money? That's one of the most dystopian and internationally unsustainable things I've ever heard.

So in your model, an American company creates something cool, then goes to China and have them make it all, send back money for the US government so they can tell a person in the US that now there's job for you collecting garbage from the streets or whatever, paid for by Chinese workers. You won't have a chance to move up and advance in anything, because it's someone else creating the value from where you're getting paid.

In my model, an American creates something cool, then goes to the US work force asking people if they want to help build it at a fair wage, with a chance to move up internally within the company if you perform well.

Your model is not only depressive when considering the self worth people feel doing meaningful stuff, but it's also highly inefficient as you need a seperate work force within government who creates the jobs, decides who gets the jobs and how much they can be paid, their workers rights etc. Sounds a lot like communism to me and the American ends up with less money than they otherwise would have, because some of the wealth have gone to a Chinese worker who actually produced something.

The model I propose is what they in other countries simply refer to as having a healthy and sensical job market, while you'd call it "trickle down and it doesn't work", which is only because past politicians let US companies outsource heavily without any consequences(those politicans became rich in the process of donations and insider knowledge).

And if you were "all for it" regarding my model, you'd be voting Trump as he's the only guy who's actually advocating for this structure instead of the communism route.

[bladefd]

Bump

With this sign, I expect interest rate cut coming very soon, perhaps 2 cuts before the year ends. I would urge against panic selling because nobody can predict the bottom.

I hope the MAGA crew didn't panic sell. They would be up quite a bit today.