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InsideHoops [Fantasy Basketball]

Fantasy Hoops: Trade Analysis

 


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/ Dec. 9, 2004

The Answerman is the one and only alternative Fantasy Basketball and Romance advice columnist on the web. He is here on insidehoops.com to answer all your questions (or at least the interesting ones).

Weíre a month into the season. Let's look at some trades.

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Dirk NowitzkiYao and Billups for Dirk. Who wins this trade? Dirk is C eligible.

Rule 1: Always get the best player in the trade. Dirk is unquestionably the best player in the trade. Iíd say Dirk is the best player in any trade not involving Garnett and Duncan.

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I was offered Q.Richardson, B.Davis and Shaq for T.Murphy, R.Jefferson and Garnett. What do you think?

Rule 2: Never get involved in a trade with more than 5 players. It's like trading half your team. When trading you should be evaluating your team, identifying specific needs and addressing them through trades. This trade offer is basically, "Here are some of my best players for some of your best players; let's see what happens."

Itís a good way to stay active in the league, there is a chance your team will improve, but it's really too many players to be able execute a good plan that will win a league.

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Some guy in my league just offered me Amare Stoudemire for Dwyane Wade. I really need a center with Magloire's injury, and since Cotton Camby is my main guy in the middle now and could go down at any time. But Wade has just been so good this year, so I really can't decide whether to go for it or not. What do you think?

Rule 3: Always go big. This is as true in fantasy hoops as in the NBA. If you can trade a small man for a comparable big man, you do the trade. The main reason is that because big men are so rare, if you have a bunch of them, you will be able to dictate trades down the road.

So, yes, you do this trade. Find some other guy who can pass and steal - Ridnour or Earl Watson are good places to start.

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I give Duncan and get Larry Hughes and Lebron in return.

Rule 4: You know, when I was 6 years old my dad sat me on his lap and said, "Answerman, if you donít remember anything else I ever tell you, I want you to take this advice: you tell your sons that they should tell their sons and for generations forward remember this: ĎNever trade Duncaní."

Sure, Duncan was 5 at the time, but he was already more developed than Hughes and LeBron.

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Is Drew Gooden and Eddy Curry for Carlos Boozer a good trade?

Now this is a good question. One not easily answered. Boozer is the best scorer of the batch. Gooden is inconsistent, but at the end of the day he steals, rebounds, and blocks better than Booze. Booze shoots a good percentage, but not as good as Curry and it's getting worse as a focus of the Utah offense.

The deciding factor (Rule 5) is looking at playersí situations. Gooden gets benched in Cleveland a lot. Too many times, Silas yanks him after a bad quarter (yet another coach to hate from a fantasy basketball perspective). Also, Curry is going to be traded this season. We donít know where or what will happen when he gets there. It makes him a dangerous pickup.

Conversely, Utah is committed to Booze. They keep going to him and rely on him for points and production.

In addition, (Rule 6) if you are getting more players in a deal, you are getting more crap.

As a result, in my expert opinion, it is a fair trade, but Iíd want the Boozer end of the deal.

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Someone offered me A.Kirilenko for Al Harrington and M. Okur. Should I do it? I could use the blocks and steals

Yawn - Kirlenko

Rule 7 - donít bore me.

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Should I trade Abdur Rahim for V Carter?

Now weíre talking:

Two guys. Neither is that much better or bigger than the other. Neither is in a good team situation. Itís a straight man for man, deal. I actually have to look at some stats.

SAR: PPG 15.3 RPG 7.8 APG 1.1 SPG 1.06 BPG .56 FG% .497 FT% .929 3P% .455

VC: PPG 16.1 RPG 3.7 APG 3.3 SPG 1.11 BPG .78 FG% .411 FT% .694 3P% .298

Rahim is a much better rebounder (though 7.8 is nothing to brag about), shoots better %ís but VC is a much better passer (though 3.3 is nothing to brag about), and a moderately better steal and blocker.

With that in mind, Iíve got to say - one mediocre player for another? Who really knows. I probably wouldnít do this trade because it feels like trading for the point of trading. If one fills a need of yours (like SARís extra rebounding will help your team while you donít need VCís pass) then go for it. Just make sure you identify the need.

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As a final point remember, trades donít get evaluated in a vacuum. The person you are proposing a trade to knows your team, knows your team's strengths and weaknesses and knows that they want to beat you. So what you have to do is make your trade offers in context. If you are the bad team, everyone thinks that you are an idiot. That is a very powerful position. People will be flooding you with trade offers for the next month trying to take your lone good player. You counter. Now, you want to maintain your moron image so always ask for Duncan/Garnett, etc. Now they will come back with "I wonít give you Garnett, but I guess I can give you A + B" They will ALL do this and eventually one will give you the player(s) you need.

If you are the top dog in the league, you dictate the trade you want. People view your players and say things like "Man, why does he have all the good players?"

However, even good teams to be careful before making their move. If you try to unload your crap on every team in the league, the other owners will know and will automatically reject you. However, make a quality trade that actually improves a lesser team (while always helping yours), you will be able to rob your competitors for the rest of the year.

It's like dancing with the ugly friend first. The hot friends admire the effort and will respond. And even if they donít, youíve still got the ugly friend to fall back on.

Thatís all we have time for today, good luck, trade safely, and if you have any questions, feel free to ask the Answerman@insidehoops.net.







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