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Last year the Utah Jazz were one game away from making it to the playoffs. In the off-season they added Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and two promising draft picks in Kris Humphries and Kirk Snyder. Matt Harpring, who was averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds before he went down after 31 games, is said to be back to 100% health. Andrei Kirilenko will be a year better. They re-signed Carlos Arroyo, who became a bigger star in the Olympics. They re-signed Gordan Giricek, a deadly outside shooter. And yet, most sports sites in their off-season power rankings still have the Jazz as ninth in the West. Did they forget Jerry Sloan is coaching this team?

There's no doubt in my mind they'll be making the playoffs. If they have a 50-win season, it's only eight more wins than they put together with teammates like Tom Gugliotta, Ben Handlogten, Mikki Moore and Michael Ruffin.

But if the Jazz are playoff-bound, who might fall out of playoff contention?

The Warriors, Clippers and Sonics have no shot.

The New Orleans Hornets made it last year in the East, but their record would have tied them for tenth in the West. Now they'll play more Western teams, and they'll do so without Jamal Mashburn, who's already announced he's out for the year. I see them ending up with maybe 35 wins.

The Portland TrailBlazers have added Nick Van Exel, who is good when he's winning and a royal sourpuss when he's losing. Sharif Abdur-Rahim wants out. I foresee more chemistry problems for this team.

The L.A. Lakers have Kobe Bryant but no Shaquille O'Neal. Remember when Shaq missed the first 30 games of the 2002-2003 season? The Lakers were 11-19. Shaq's gone, GP's gone, Fisher's gone, Fox is gone, Malone's likely gone. Kobe does have help in Lamar Odom, but how much better is Kobe than T-Mac? T-Mac was the lone superstar on the worst team in the NBA last year. It wouldn't shock me if the Lakers missed the playoffs altogether.

The Dallas Mavericks added Erick Dampier, but what does that really mean? Dampier's always been halfway decent center who only steps up his game in contract years. Well, now he's not in a contract year, and what do you bet he goes back to his 7-point, 7-rebound ways? Why would Cuban balk at giving the consistent 30-year-old Steve Nash $65 million over 6 years, but be okay with giving the question mark 29-year-old Dampier $73 million over seven years? How are Stackhouse and Finley going to co-exist? This team has loads of talent, but it's all about chemistry and if they decide to play defense this year.

The Memphis Grizzlies's only move was to add Brian Cardinal, which is fine, but who's to say they'll have another miracle season?

The Phoenix Suns added Steve Nash and Quentin Richardson, but they still have no center.

The Houston Rockets gave up a lot to get T-Mac. Is T-Mac with Yao 25 games better? Though, even without a star point guard, T-Mac and Yao can look to coach Jeff Van Gundy to lead them back to the playoffs.

Sure bets to continue making the playoffs are the San Antonio Spurs, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Sacramento Kings and the Denver Nuggets.

The Utah Jazz should make the playoffs as well.