2011 NBA Playoffs Preview
By InsideHoops.com | April 15, 2011
The 2011 NBA Playoffs begin Saturday, April 16 and should be one of the most exciting and unpredicable playoffs in years.
QUICK NBA PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have a great shot at keeping the title. Their biggest competition should come from the San Antonio Spurs in the West, and the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics in the East. Lakers star Kobe Bryant is aging but still capable of taking over games. Tim Duncan has taken a smaller role on the Spurs this year, but the team keeps winning thanks to balance. THe Heat have been more or less as good as hoped, and it's hard to ever count out a team with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. The Celtics have dropped a bit in status, especially since center Kendrick Perkins was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they still have a championship-experienced core. And the Bulls, although very young and inexperienced, know that defense can win championships, and they defend perhaps better than virtually everyone else in the league. InsideHoops.com looks for the Spurs or Lakers to reach the Finals out West, and the Bulls or Heat, and maybe the Celtics, to reach the Finals from the East.
EASTERN CONFERENCE NBA PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
In the first round, it's Bulls vs Pacers, Heat vs 76ers, Celtics vs Knicks, and Magic vs Hawks.
Bulls-Pacers: The Bulls won a league-best 62 games this season and should blow past the Pacers. Chicago superstar point guard Derrick Rose is the favorite to win the league's MVP award, and he has a terrific supporting cast. Indiana doesn't have enough to compete in this matchup.
Sports Illustrated reports: "While other high seeds have staggered over the past month -- the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Mavericks and Heat -- the Bulls have never stopped surging. They have won nine games in a row and 21 of 23 with the presumptive MVP (Derrick Rose) and potential coach of the year (Tom Thibodeau). After scraping into the playoffs the past two seasons as the No. 8 seed, they have become the most consistent and diligent team in the NBA. The Pacers aspire to be what the Bulls (62-20) once were: an underdog throwing a scare. Interim coach Frank Vogel has steered the Pacers to the playoffs for the first time in five years, dialing up the tempo and resuscitating former North Carolina star Tyler Hansbrough, but the Pacers (37-45) still have a losing record and no margin for error."
Sporting News reports: "The Bulls enter this series having put together a very strong closing run, on a 24-3 run since the trading deadline and serving notice to the rest of the East that they’re not just a young team happy to accrue some playoff experience. No, this team really thinks it can win this year. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 37-45 and just happy to log a little playoff experience. Point guard Derrick Rose is the prohibitive favorite to win this year’s MVP, and the Pacers will be hard-pressed to slow him down on the perimeter—point guard Darren Collison is quick, but he can’t match Rose’s combination of speed and strength. The Pacers do have good shot-blockers and are seventh in the league when it comes to keeping teams from scoring in the paint. But Rose will put a lot of pressure on Indiana’s big men. Danny Granger has had a down year for the Pacers this season, averaging 20.5 points on 42.5 percent shooting, but he is the only Indiana starter who has playoff experience."
Heat-76ers: Miami is loaded. Although the supporting cast surrounding the "big three" isn't as good as it may be in the future, overall the Heat are too much for the Sixers to handle. Though, Philly deserves credit for playing better than expected this season; plenty of credit for that goes to coach Doug Collins. And Andre Iguodala and his teammates, of course.
Sports Illustrated reports: The two have met only once since Nov. 26, when Miami rallied for a 99-90 victory and Philadelphia dropped a season-low 10 games under .500 at 3-13. But that game marked a turning point for the Sixers, especially with the emergence of guard Jodie Meeks as a key rotation player. Meeks scored 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting, including 5-of-8 from three-point range, and coach Doug Collins made him a permanent starter less than week later. Since that November loss, the Sixers have gone 38-28 behind a strong defense, solid bench play and smaller lineups featuring Sixth Man Award candidates Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams.
Sporting News reports: "Despite several speed bumps and a couple of all-out derailments, the Heat finished the season strong and outraced the Celtics for the No. 2 seed in the East. They’re coming into the postseason on a roll, while the Sixers stumbled with an April stretch that has seen them lose five of their last six and miss out on the No. 6 spot in the conference. The last time these two teams played, the Heat’s star trio of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade combined to score 91 of the team’s 111 points and led Miami back from a 16-point deficit. That win gave the Heat a season sweep of the Sixers, and finding a way to contain James, Bosh and Wade will prove too difficult for Philadelphia coach Doug Collins. The Sixers will need smart, veteran leadership from Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand to have a chance."
Celtics-Knicks: The Celtics aren't as dominant as they were in the past, but just last season's playoffs alone prove they deserve the benefit of any doubt. The Knicks got to the playoffs mostly due to a balanced roster that no longer exists due to the huge trade that brought Carmelo Anthony to New York. They struggled after the trade, but they caught fire and are heading into the playoffs hot. Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups may steal a win or two from Boston.
Sports Illustrated reports: Both teams were mediocre after their midseason blockbusters -- New York (42-40) went 14-14 after acquiring Carmelo Anthony, and Boston (56-26) went 15-12 after shipping Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City -- though the Knicks' recent seven-game winning streak gives them optimism. The Celtics' 4-0 record against New York carries little weight because circumstances for each team have changed so radically. This will be a series of pace: If the games are free-flowing and the ball is zipping up and down the floor, the Celtics will be in trouble.
Sporting News reports: "The Knicks would like to make this series a rivalry, but in reality, these two teams have little recent playoff history with each other—the last time they played in the postseason was the first round in 1990. The Celtics, over the course of a stretch-run slide dating back to early March, have struggled to score. The Knicks, even during a late-season surge, have struggled to defend. Thus, this series is one in which an all-too-stoppable force meets a very movable object. A first-round matchup rarely features the star power that this series has. There will be six 2011 All-Stars on the floor, with the Celtics’ quartet of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett on one side, and Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony on the other. Heading into the playoffs, Anthony has emphatically taken the reins of the Knicks offense, with Stoudemire playing a pretty solid No. 2. They will both be a big challenge for the Celtics’ defense. The problem for the Knicks, though, is that they play so little defense that this series might be just what the Celtics need to get their offense back in gear."
Magic-Hawks: A series that could go six or seven games is the Magic vs Hawks. Orlando seems more beatable than they were in the past. Dwight Howard's supporting cast isn't as polished as the squad that reached the Finals. But they should still be considered a favorite when facing a Hawks team that always seems pretty good but has not shown they can raise the level of their play in the playoffs.
Sports Illustrated reports: The Washington Generals took less of a beating than the Hawks did in the second round last postseason, when Orlando swept them right out of the playoffs. That Hawks team was one-dimensional offensively and had problems -- big problems -- defending the center and point guard positions. That Hawks team lost by an average of 25.3 points, including a 43-point blowout in Game 1. This Hawks team (44-38) is a little different. The addition of Kirk Hinrich has stabilized the point guard position, and new coach Larry Drew has (somewhat) diversified the offense. Atlanta took three of four from Orlando (52-30) during the regular season while keeping Howard (19.3 points on 43.1 percent shooting) reasonably in check.
Sporting News reports: "It’s been a weird season in Atlanta, where the Hawks promoted Larry Drew to head coach, altered the offense, started the year on a six-game winning streak, added Kirk Hinrich at the trade deadline ... and still finished with 44 wins, compared to 53 last year. It’s been just as weird a year in Orlando, where the Magic blew up the roster in December and brought in Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas ... and finished with just 51 wins, down from 59 last year. For both teams, this postseason will be an attempt to salvage two equally odd years. The Magic revolve around MVP-candidate center Dwight Howard, who is averaging 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds this season. Atlanta has been especially physical with Howard in the teams’ last three meetings, and it has worked—the Hawks won all three games, with Howard averaging 16.7 points on 15-for-38 (39.5 percent) shooting. In their last meeting, Hawks center Jason Collins manhandled Howard as much as he could, something a clearly frustrated Howard complained about when asked after the game. Atlanta All-Star guard Joe Johnson will be a handful for Orlando shooting guard Richardson."
WESTERN CONFERENCE NBA PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
In the first round, it's the Spurs vs Grizzlies, Lakers vs Hornets, Mavericks vs Trail Blazers, and Thunder vs Nuggets.
This is the bulk of where InsideHoops.com's first round focus will be. The matchups here are more interesting than the ones out East. We should get some amazing basketball right away here.
Spurs-Grizzlies: The Spurs proved all season to be a perfectly coached, amazingly balanced squad that gets contributions from every direction. Even though the Grizzlies have played very well without small forward Rudy Gay, they're outmatched here. It must be said that the Grizzlies give the Spurs plenty of trouble, but it's tough to believe the championship-experienced Spurs won't close this series out.
Sports Illustrated reports: "These teams approached the playoffs with different aims: The Spurs (61-21) earned the No. 1 seed with the ultimate goal of winning a fifth championship around Tim Duncan. The Grizzlies (46-36), who have never won a game in postseason, simply wanted to make the tournament -- especially after losing star forward Rudy Gay to a season-ending injury in February. The Spurs now look to recover the health of Manu Ginobili, who suffered a hyperextended right elbow in the regular-season finale, and advance strongly toward a potential conference finals against the No. 2 Lakers."
Sporting News reports: "The Spurs rolled through the season with a revamped offense that averaged 103.7 points per game and shot 47.6 percent from the field. That was the key to clinching the second-best record in the league, but coach Gregg Popovich stated all along that unless the team played better defense, long a staple of San Antonio’s success, it wouldn’t last long in the postseason. The Spurs finished 11th in the league in defensive efficiency, well off their usual spot among the league leaders, and with Manu Ginobili suffering an elbow injury on the season’s final night, things look dicey in San Antonio. The eighth-seeded Grizzlies have size and athleticism—two things that the Spurs don’t handle very well."
Lakers-Hornets: The Lakers were amazingly hot from around All-Star break through about two weeks ago, then they went ice cold, but very briefly and we don't take their recent losses too seriously. They're facing a Hornets team that is without their second best player, power forward David West. Star point guard Chris Paul should have a field day penetrating vs ancient Derek Fisher, but the Hornets don't have what it takes to get past the defending champs.
Sports Illustrated reports: Kobe Bryant once called the Lakers schizophrenic, and once again, it's hard to get a read on their true personality. Are they the two-time champions who won 17 of 18 games out of the All-Star break and can exploit a size advantage against anyone they face? Or are they the complacent and short-handed unit that lost the top seed in the Western Conference, dropped five games in a row this month and watched Andrew Bynum hobble off Tuesday with a bruised knee? The Lakers (57-25) should be able to get their bearings in the first round against the Hornets (46-36), who lost all four meetings with the Lakers this season, and won't have David West because of his torn ACL. Like the Lakers, the Hornets are limping into the playoffs, and will need a dominant series from Chris Paul to compete.
Sporting News reports: "The Lakers enter the postseason against a recognizable backdrop. They’ve struggled in April, just like last year when they lost seven of their final 11 games. They’ve looked old at times (sound familiar?). Andrew Bynum is dealing with a knee injury—though it is a bone bruise that is not expected to keep him out of the playoff opener, it is an injury worth watching because Bynum has had knee issues in each of the last three postseasons. But the Lakers are the two-time defending champs, and they’ll be trying to send coach Phil Jackson into retirement with his 12th championship ring. That quest begins against the seventh-seeded Hornets, who overcame a late injury to star forward David West to hold their playoff spot."
Mavs-Blazers: The Mavericks face an extremely hot Trail Blazers squad that has looked revived ever since landing forward Gerald Wallace in trade. Even with guard Brandon Roy hobbling around and limited in what he can deliver on a regular basis, the Blazers seem dangerous. The Mavericks are without forward Caron Butler, but still have plenty of weapons, and Dirk Nowitzki remains as dangerous as ever. This series has the potential to go seven games and it may be worth watching every minute of this thing closely.
Sports Illustrated reports: This might be the most intriguing series of the first round. The Blazers won their last two regular-season meetings with Dallas, and their new versatility gives them the ability to match up with the Mavericks in several different ways. Portland's big guards, especially Brandon Roy, can thrive against the Mavs' smaller and, in Jason Kidd's case, slower backcourt, and the Blazers can throw three guys at Dirk Nowitzki -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace. The Mavs just snapped a nine-game losing streak to Western Conference playoff teams, and they never quite regained the form that saw them start 43-9 in games Dirk Nowitzki played. Tyson Chandler has missed a few games (including the last Portland game) with minor ailments, the slumping Roddy Beaubois has been pulled from the starting lineup and the Corey Brewer/Peja Stojakovic small forward combination never really worked.
Sporting News reports: "This has to be the matchup that the Blazers hoped for, as the Mavericks have been one of the tougher teams to figure this year. Dallas closed the season on a four-game winning streak, but that followed a four-game losing streak, which followed a five-game winning streak, which followed a stretch of five losses in eight games, which followed a stretch of 18 wins in 19 games ... there’s more, but the point is made. Dallas is a streaky team that doesn’t handle adversity well, while the Blazers—wracked by injuries for a second straight year—somehow keep putting winning seasons together."
Thunder-Nuggets: The Thunder and Nuggets series is another that will keep us glued to the action. Ever since trading Carmelo Anthony, Denver has been balanced and dangerous, with a number of players capable of stepping up any given night. They can give the Thunder plenty of trouble. But Oklahoma City has the league's best scorer in Kevin Durant, and an insanely talented point guard in Russell Westbrook. The addition of center Kendrick Perkins gives OKC increased toughness and defense up front. These games may be amazing. We hope the series goes seven games.
Sports Illustrated reports: It's kind of sad, really, that two of the Western Conference's youngest, most entertaining teams will whack each other around until someone is eliminated. It's been a remarkable run for Denver, which has gone 18-7 since shipping Carmelo Anthony to New York. The Nuggets (50-32) are deeper -- eight players are averaging double figures -- and considerably better defensively than they were with Anthony. The Thunder (55-27), the NBA's third-youngest team, boast the league's scoring champion (Kevin Durant), a dynamic point guard (Russell Westbrook) and, as of the trade deadline, a burly, defensive-minded frontcourt. These are two teams that figure to be among the elite for the next decade battling for the right to move on.
Sporting News reports: "It was a tale of two deadline deals. For the Nuggets, it was supposed to be a dismantling of the roster, with stars Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups shipped out to the New York Knicks thanks to Anthony’s refusal to sign a contract extension. In return, Denver got a pretty good package of players around whom they could kick-start their rebuilding—swingmen Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, point guard Raymond Felton and center Timofey Mozgov. The Thunder also made a trade at the deadline, acquiring center Kendrick Perkins from the Boston Celtics for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic, a deal that was expected to eventually push the Thunder into contention. For both teams, though, success came ahead of schedule. The Nuggets finished 18-7 after the Anthony deal, and the Thunder were 19-5 after March 1."
A PLAYOFF PREVIEW STORY TO WATCH
According to the Sporting News, "What to make of the last week-and-a-half of the Lakers’ regular season? They lost five-straight games, averaging a lowly 90.8 points, had to grind out a win over the Spurs — who were resting their top players —and blew a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Kings, only to pull out the win in overtime. This is a team that has had issues with focus and intensity all year, and they will need to summon both now that the playoffs are here. Fortunately, they were able to cling to the No. 2 seed in the West, which means they open with the Hornets, who are simply undermanned in this one. “It’s a whole new ballgame when it comes to the playoffs,” Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. “New Orleans faded at the end of the year, but they are a very talented team."
A POSSIBLE FIRST-ROUND UPSET TO WATCH
According to the Sporting News, "It’s hard to call the No. 3 seeded Mavericks the clear favorite in their series against the Blazers, because power forward LaMarcus Aldridge can at least play Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki to a stalemate, and the Blazers hold advantages at several other positions — most notably small forward, where Gerald Wallace has averaged 15.8 points per game. Dallas doesn’t have the best recent history when it comes to the playoffs (they’ve been knocked out in the first round three of the last four postseasons), and another loss could put coach Rick Carlisle into some hot water."
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